The global smartphone market is facing a slowdown in growth, with major players like Apple and Samsung feeling the impact of new U.S. tariffs. Counterpoint Research has revised its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast downward from 4.2% to 1.9%, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. government.
The tariff policies, particularly those introduced by President Donald Trump in April 2025, have forced tech companies, including Apple, to reassess their supply chain strategies. While a temporary 90-day suspension of the tariffs for smartphones has been enacted, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to challenge the sector. As a result, manufacturers are likely to slow production and pass increased costs on to consumers, affecting overall sales volume.
China, a crucial market for both Apple and Samsung, is expected to experience near-zero growth in smartphone shipments, further complicating the global outlook. Apple has already begun shifting some production to India in an attempt to diversify its supply chain and reduce dependency on China, though logistical challenges remain.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. smartphone market is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2025. The increase in shipments is largely attributed to an aging installed base ready for upgrades. However, the new tariffs are expected to raise average selling prices, although many U.S. consumers purchase smartphones through installment plans or trade-ins, which could mitigate the impact of higher prices.
The ongoing trade disputes underscore the complex global environment in which smartphone manufacturers operate. While short-term growth in the U.S. may remain stable, the long-term effects of these tariff policies and trade uncertainties will likely shape the future of the smartphone market, forcing companies like Apple and Samsung to continuously adapt their strategies.
